金价持续高位震荡后续仍存上涨基础

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing fluctuations at high levels, influenced by various factors including risk asset attractiveness and geopolitical tensions [1][2] Group 1: Recent Price Movements - COMEX gold futures prices fell for four consecutive days starting July 23, reaching $3314 per ounce on July 28, a cumulative decline of nearly 4% [1] - Gold prices rebounded on July 29, closing up 0.46%, and as of July 30, prices were reported at $3386.3 per ounce, an increase of 1.55% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices was attributed to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to high-growth tech stocks, alongside a rise in risk asset appeal [1] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and long-term inflation expectations continue to support gold prices, maintaining their high-level fluctuations [1] - Market sentiment is expected to improve with the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where a dovish signal regarding potential interest rate cuts may positively impact gold prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that gold prices will remain in a range between $3300 and $3500 per ounce, with potential upward movement if the Federal Reserve initiates a rate-cutting cycle [2] - The global central bank's strong inclination towards gold allocation and persistent inflation risks in the U.S. suggest that gold prices may continue to trend upwards in the second half of the year [2] - The World Gold Council's report indicates that gold price movements will depend on multiple factors, including trade tensions, inflation dynamics, and central bank monetary policies [2] - If key macro variables align with current market expectations, gold prices could see a 0% to 5% increase in the second half of the year, with an annual growth rate between 25% and 30% [2] - Continued interest in gold investments is anticipated, particularly in gold ETFs and over-the-counter trading, driven by potential interest rate cuts and ongoing uncertainties [2]