Why Is Cardiff Oncology Stock Trading Lower After Colorectal Cancer Data?

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is focusing on developing more effective therapies for metastatic colorectal cancer, with Cardiff Oncology's onvansertib showing promising results in a Phase 2 clinical trial [1][7]. Clinical Trial Results - The CRDF-004 Phase 2 trial involved patients randomized into six arms, with the high-dose (30mg) onvansertib plus standard-of-care (SoC) showing an overall objective response rate (ORR) of 59%, while the 20mg dose had a 50% ORR, compared to 43% in the control arm [2]. - Confirmed ORRs at 6 months were 49% for the high-dose, 42% for the low-dose, and 30% for the control arm [2]. - A comparison with December 2024 data indicated an ORR of 57% for all onvansertib patients, with 64% in the 30mg dose plus SoC arm, and 33% in the SoC alone arm [3]. Efficacy and Safety - Spider plots demonstrated deeper tumor size reductions in patients receiving the 30mg dose of onvansertib combined with SoC compared to the control and 20mg dose arms [4]. - Both the 20mg and 30mg onvansertib arms showed early separation of progression-free survival (PFS) curves compared to the control arm, although median PFS has not yet been reached [5]. - The safety analysis of 104 patients indicated that onvansertib combined with chemotherapy and bevacizumab was well-tolerated, with no major unexpected toxicities [6]. Future Outlook - The update on the first-line mCRC program is expected by the first quarter of 2026, and William Blair believes the current data justifies further investment, including a Phase 3 trial [7]. - Analyst Andy Hsieh noted that the data weakens bearish arguments against the stock, raising the question of whether ORR improvements will lead to significant PFS gains, which are crucial for approval [8]. Market Sentiment - Historical data suggests that even modest improvements in response rates can lead to successful trial outcomes, as seen in other studies [9]. - William Blair holds a bullish view on onvansertib's potential to disrupt the RAS-mutated frontline mCRC treatment paradigm, reiterating an Outperform rating despite a 19.94% drop in Cardiff Oncology shares to $2.65 at the time of publication [10].