Royal Caribbean's 2025 Upside May Be Limited, But 2026 Yield Growth Could Exceed Estimates

Core Viewpoint - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is experiencing a decline in share price due to a tempered yield outlook for 2025, despite a significant rally in shares over the past three months [1][2]. Group 1: Share Performance and Analyst Ratings - RCL shares are trading lower by 1.01% to $331.06 [5]. - Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove has reiterated a Buy rating on the company, while lowering the price forecast from $364 to $361 [1]. Group 2: Yield Outlook and Earnings Estimates - The company's updated yield outlook for 2025 has been revised down, with the high end of net yield guidance decreasing from 4.6% to 4.0%, indicating limited upside to earnings estimates [2][5]. - The full-year guidance does not account for any potential acceleration in close-in demand, which could allow for upward revisions in the future [5]. Group 3: Booking Trends and Future Growth - A shortening booking window, which has already narrowed by one week for 2026, is not seen as alarming, but investors are advised to monitor Norwegian Cruise Line's upcoming update for further insights on cruise trends [3]. - The setup for 2026 net yield growth could exceed current expectations, driven by contributions from new ships and the Beach Club, alongside a more stable macroeconomic environment [4].