Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's current interest rate level is deemed appropriate to address ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation, significantly reducing market expectations for a rate cut in September [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a vote of 9 to 2, marking a routine decision for the year [1]. - Two members, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, opposed the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, which is the first dissent since 1993 [1]. - Following Powell's remarks, market expectations for a September rate cut dropped from approximately 60% to a 50% chance [1]. Group 2: Economic Assessment - The Fed downgraded its economic outlook, stating that recent data indicates a slowdown in economic activity growth during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous assessments of robust expansion [1]. - The second quarter GDP showed an annualized growth of 3%, reversing a contraction of 0.5% in the previous quarter, largely due to businesses importing ahead of tariffs [2]. - Consumer spending has shown the weakest growth since the pandemic, with two consecutive quarters of low performance [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Labor Market - Inflation remains slightly elevated, with certain goods directly affected by tariffs, such as toys, clothing, and electronics, experiencing significant price increases [2]. - The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1%, partly due to reduced labor supply from tightened immigration policies [2]. Group 4: Future Policy Outlook - Powell emphasized the need to observe data developments before making decisions regarding potential rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach [3]. - The FOMC's recent meeting did not provide substantial policy guidance, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the economic landscape [3].
美联储主席鲍威尔称目前利率水平合适 市场对9月降息押注大幅下降
智通财经网·2025-07-30 22:19