降息又落空！美联储决策层32年来首现分裂 特朗普目标9月实现？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time since early 2025 that rates have been held steady, despite increasing pressure from the White House for rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve noted a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the first half of the year, which could provide a basis for future rate cuts if the trend continues [3]. - The Fed emphasized high uncertainty in the economic outlook, with risks to both inflation and employment targets [3]. - Two Fed governors voted against the decision to maintain rates, indicating deepening internal divisions regarding monetary policy [1][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Influences - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the current monetary policy stance allows the Fed to respond promptly to potential economic developments, with future adjustments depending on comprehensive evidence, including employment, inflation, and economic activity data [3][5]. - Powell highlighted that tariffs have raised prices on certain goods, suggesting that 30% to 40% of core inflation may be influenced by tariffs, which could be a key factor in delaying rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Internal Disagreements - President Trump has publicly pressured the Fed for significant rate cuts, even threatening to dismiss Powell, which reflects a tense relationship between the Fed and the White House [6][11]. - The dissenting votes from the two governors, both appointed by Trump, align with concerns over a weakening labor market and the potential for increased recession risks if rates are not lowered [7][11]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the Fed's decision, market expectations for a rate cut in September significantly decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 68% to 45% [12]. - Despite the drop in rate cut expectations, the U.S. stock market showed resilience, with mixed performance among major indices, indicating that investor sentiment remains cautious yet stable [14].