民生证券：内部分歧为7月美联储议息会议看点

Group 1 - The July FOMC meeting lacked suspense regarding interest rate cuts, as recent inflation and employment data indicated a strong likelihood of maintaining rates, with a consensus among Fed officials leaning towards a wait-and-see approach [1][4] - The meeting revealed significant internal divisions within the Fed, with two members voting against the decision to keep rates unchanged, highlighting concerns over economic slowdown and political pressures [4][5] - Powell's remarks indicated a shift in focus towards labor market performance, acknowledging a slowdown while emphasizing the need to monitor unemployment and wage growth as indicators of potential risks [5][6] Group 2 - The Fed's decision-making process has been simplified by the recent trade agreements, which have clarified the target tariff ranges, allowing for better assessment of inflationary pressures [12][19] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has decreased, but the overall tariff rates remain higher than before Trump's administration, which may still impact inflation transmission over time [12][17] - The upcoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation and employment, will be crucial for the Fed's decisions in the September meeting, with expectations of moderate inflation growth [17][19]