动力煤港口价目标区间有望至700-750元/吨

Core Viewpoint - The coal mining industry is experiencing a shift aimed at breaking the "deflation spiral," with a focus on the long-term coal price benchmark of 675 RMB/ton as a critical point [1][5] Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The National Energy Administration has initiated a verification of coal mine production in eight key provinces to ensure stable coal supply [2] - The verification will assess whether coal production in 2024 exceeds announced capacity and if production plans for 2025 are reasonable [2] - A timeline has been set for the verification process, with reports due by August 15, and the National Energy Administration will conduct random checks [2] Group 2: Inventory and Demand-Supply Dynamics - Total coal inventory is projected to increase by approximately 28.34 million tons in 2024, excluding unreported inventories [3] - A different calculation method indicates a total inventory increase of about 92.69 million tons, reflecting a more comprehensive view of supply and demand [3] - By June 2025, domestic coal inventory is expected to decrease compared to the same period in 2024, with prices having rebounded after hitting a low in mid-June [3] Group 3: Production Capacity and Market Adjustments - There is limited room for overproduction at the national level, with a target of approximately 4.8 billion tons of coal production for 2025 [4] - Some regions, particularly Xinjiang and Shaanxi, may face overproduction issues due to high capacity utilization [4] - The policy toolbox is available for temporary capacity adjustments to ensure supply, similar to measures taken in late 2021 [4] Group 4: Price Projections - The coal industry is expected to see a price range of 700-750 RMB/ton for power coal by the end of the year, influenced by policy measures [1][5] - The long-term coal price benchmark of 675 RMB/ton remains a significant focus for market participants [5]