王宇：在不确定环境中以适度宽松的货币政策应对经济挑战

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy is crucial for promoting sustained economic recovery and high-quality development in the face of a complex and changing internal and external economic environment [1][2][8]. Economic Environment - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, with the World Bank lowering its 2025 global growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3% and international trade growth forecast from 3.4% to 1.8%, marking the slowest growth since the 2008 financial crisis [3][4]. - China's economy is under pressure from insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, necessitating a stronger emphasis on expanding domestic demand and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy [2][8]. Domestic Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, with retail sales increasing by 5.0% from January to May, and fixed asset investment rising by 3.7% [7][8]. - Despite positive growth indicators, challenges remain, including a negative GDP deflator for eight consecutive quarters and a consumer price index (CPI) increase of only 0.1% in June, indicating persistent low demand [8][15]. Monetary Policy Characteristics - Monetary policy serves as a tool for total demand management and counter-cyclical adjustment, aiming to restore balance between total supply and demand while maintaining price stability [9][10]. - A moderately loose monetary policy involves dynamic adjustments based on economic conditions, including lowering interest rates and increasing money supply to reduce financing costs and stimulate demand [10][11]. Policy Implementation and Effects - Since 2025, the People's Bank of China has lowered policy rates, resulting in a reduction of corporate and personal housing loan rates by approximately 50 and 55 basis points, respectively, leading to historically low financing costs [15][16]. - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 2.29 trillion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, indicating robust credit growth [16]. Strategic Focus Areas - The implementation of moderately loose monetary policy should focus on three aspects: total volume, price, and structure, to ensure sustained economic growth and stability [17][18]. - Emphasis on optimizing financial resource allocation, enhancing the efficiency of financial services to the real economy, and supporting key sectors and vulnerable areas through targeted monetary policy tools [18].