【中金：美联储9月或难以降息】7月31日讯，中金研报称，美联储9月会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。有两位理事反对维持利率不变，但鲍威尔与多数官员倾向维持紧缩：他们认为关税带来的通胀风险仍未解除，且劳动力市场依旧稳固，因此不具备降息条件。鲍威尔还强调了美联储独立性，暗示不会屈服于政治压力。我们认为，未来几个月关税的通胀效应将进一步显现，美联储9月或难以降息，如果特朗普关税继续加码，降息时点还可能延后。至于特朗普施压要求降息，我们认为市场低估了美联储维护独立性的决心。利率决议由12名票委共同决定，即便特朗普解雇了鲍

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in September due to persistent inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market, despite some dissent among board members [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, with two board members opposing the decision to keep rates unchanged [1] - Chairman Powell and the majority of officials favor a tight monetary policy, citing unresolved inflation risks from tariffs [1] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The inflation effects from tariffs are expected to become more pronounced in the coming months, making a rate cut in September unlikely [1] - If President Trump's tariffs are further escalated, the timing for any potential rate cuts may be delayed [1] Independence of the Federal Reserve - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating that it will not yield to political pressure regarding interest rate decisions [1] - The decision-making process involves 12 voting members, suggesting that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, it would not significantly alter the direction of monetary policy [1]