智通财经网·2025-07-30 02:35Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the cyclical nature of the process industry, predicting a significant decline of over 20% in capital expenditure for petrochemicals in 2024. However, investments in the northwest coal chemical sector are expected to bring marginal changes to the new market, while ongoing equipment renewal policies will provide long-term resilience for process industry equipment investments [1][2]. Group 1: Process Industry Overview - The process industry is a foundational sector in China's economy, accounting for approximately 47% of the total industrial output value. It includes various industries such as petrochemicals, chemicals, paper, cement, non-ferrous metals, steel, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverages [1]. - Since 2018, the petrochemical and metallurgy sectors have driven overall investment growth in the process industry, with capital expenditures reaching CNY 298 billion and CNY 278.8 billion respectively by 2023 [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - In 2024, capital expenditures in traditional sectors like petrochemicals and basic chemicals are projected to decline significantly, with reductions of 20.66% and 19.34%, leading to a combined shortfall exceeding CNY 100 billion [2]. - The northwest coal chemical sector is set to see substantial investment, with total planned investments in Xinjiang coal chemical projects estimated at CNY 557.943 billion, and overall investments in the northwest coal chemical sector expected to reach at least CNY 840.568 billion [2]. Group 3: Equipment and Technology - The process equipment sector is characterized by a combination of dynamic (moving) and static (stationary) equipment, including compressors, pumps, seals, air separation equipment, valves, and control systems, which are essential for the production processes [3]. - Compressors are a core component of process equipment, with the domestic market for high-end turbines exceeding CNY 10 billion. The axial compressor market is dominated by a single player, while the centrifugal compressor market shows a diverse competitive landscape [4]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The mechanical seal market, crucial for compressors and pumps, is projected to reach CNY 8.336 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.81% over five years. The domestic market leader, Zhongmi Holdings, has maintained a top market share for seven consecutive years [5][6]. - The pump and valve sectors exhibit a "big industry, small company" characteristic, with leading firms like Southern Pump Industry benefiting from diverse applications and stable profit margins [7]. Group 5: Automation and Control Systems - The automation market for instruments and control systems is expected to exceed CNY 100 billion by 2024, with domestic leaders like Chuan Instruments achieving significant market share in high-precision pressure transmitters [9]. - The DCS (Distributed Control System) market is projected to reach CNY 11.757 billion, with domestic market leader Zhongkong Technology holding a 40.36% market share, indicating a strong trend towards domestic automation solutions [9]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes: 1) Major equipment in the coal chemical sector, recommending companies like Hangyang and Shandong Power; 2) Equipment renewal in the existing market, with a focus on Chuan Instruments and Zhongmi Holdings; 3) Overseas market expansion, recommending companies like Fostar and Nuwai; 4) Domestic substitution, with a recommendation for Zhongkong Technology [10].