IMF上调全球经济增长预期 呼吁缓解贸易紧张局势

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years to 3% and 3.1%, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from its April predictions [1] Economic Growth Projections - Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.5% this year and 1.6% next year [1] - The United States and Eurozone are projected to grow by 1.9% and 1% this year, and 2% and 1.2% next year, respectively [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are forecasted to grow by 4.1% this year and 4% next year [1] Factors Influencing Growth - The upward revision in global growth expectations is influenced by several factors, including: - Importers stockpiling goods in anticipation of tariffs [1] - The current average effective tariff rate in the U.S. being lower than previously announced [1] - A weaker dollar improving financial conditions [1] - Fiscal expansion policies implemented by major economies [1] Risks to Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the risks to future economic prospects are skewed to the downside, including: - A potential rebound in effective tariff rates that could hinder economic growth [1] - Increased uncertainty potentially leading to more severe negative impacts on economic activity [1] - Geopolitical tensions disrupting global supply chains and raising commodity prices [1] - Rising fiscal deficits or increased risk aversion potentially pushing up long-term interest rates and tightening global financial conditions [1] Call for Cooperation - The IMF emphasizes the importance of pragmatic cooperation among economies to alleviate trade tensions and reduce trade and investment barriers through negotiations [2]