Timken (TKR) Q2 EPS Beats Falls 13%

Core Viewpoint - Timken reported Q2 2025 results with earnings per share (Non-GAAP) of $1.42, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.36, while revenue was $1.17 billion, slightly above the estimate of $1.15 billion. However, both adjusted EBITDA margin and net income margin declined year-over-year, leading management to lower the full-year earnings outlook due to ongoing demand softness and tariffs [1][2][14]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 EPS (Non-GAAP) was $1.42, down 12.9% from $1.63 in Q2 2024 [2] - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $1.17 billion, a decrease of 0.8% from $1.18 billion in Q2 2024 [2] - Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 17.7%, down 1.8 percentage points from 19.5% in the prior year [2] - Net income margin decreased to 6.7% from 8.1% year-over-year [2] - Free cash flow (Non-GAAP) was $78 million, down 10.3% from $87 million in Q2 2024 [2] Business Overview and Strategy - Timken specializes in engineered bearings and power transmission products, with a strong reputation for quality and technical leadership [3] - The company operates in 45 countries, serving diverse sectors including renewable energy, transport, and industrial automation, with no single customer exceeding 6% of total sales [4] - Recent strategic focuses include maintaining leadership in bearings, expanding through acquisitions, and managing supply chain and raw material costs amid tariffs [4][12] Segment Insights - Revenue dipped 0.8% due to demand weakness across major business areas, with organic sales declining 2.5% [5] - Engineered Bearings sales fell 0.8%, while the Industrial Motion segment saw a 0.7% drop in sales [7] - The acquisition of CGI contributed $14 million to revenue, helping to stabilize overall sales [5] Profitability Challenges - Profitability was pressured with net income margin at 6.7%, down from 8.1%, due to lower volumes and increased costs from tariffs [6] - Both Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion segments experienced lower adjusted EBITDA margins, decreasing by 1.5 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively [6] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Free cash flow was $78.2 million, down from $87.3 million year-over-year, but cash and equivalents increased [11] - Net debt rose to $1.78 billion, with a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.3x, up from 2.0x at the end of 2024 [11] Future Guidance - Management revised full-year earnings guidance to an adjusted EPS range of $5.10 to $5.40, with revenue expected to be flat to down 2.5% compared to 2024 [14] - Key areas to monitor include the ability to manage tariff costs, the impact of restructuring actions, and demand in growth sectors like renewable energy [15]