港汇触发7.85弱方兑换保证 香港金管局买入39.25亿港元

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has activated the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" at 7.85, indicating a significant shift in the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate dynamics due to various market factors [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - The HKMA bought 39.25 billion HKD on July 31, reducing the banking system's balance to 82.55 billion HKD on August 1 [1]. - The last activation of the 7.85 weak-side guarantee occurred on July 16, involving 14.83 billion HKD [1]. - Since June, the HKMA has intervened in the market seven times, absorbing a total of 911.08 billion HKD, which is 70% of the hot money inflow in May [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate and Market Conditions - The HKMA's president, Yu Weiwen, indicated that multiple factors have contributed to the weakening of the Hong Kong dollar, including ample liquidity in the market leading to lower local interest rates and an expanded interest rate differential with the U.S. [1][2]. - There is a potential for the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" to be triggered again, as the banking system's balance decreases and local interest rates may rise, aligning with the design of the linked exchange rate system [2]. Group 3: Market Demand for HKD - The peak period for dividend payouts by listed companies is nearing its end, which may reduce demand for HKD [3]. - Non-local companies are expected to convert HKD raised from IPOs or bond issuances back to their home currencies [3]. - The demand for HKD related to half-year settlements has largely been met, leading to a decrease in market demand for the currency [3].