Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-07-31 01:05Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the meeting on July 30, indicating ongoing concerns about stagflation risks and the challenges in lowering interest rates as long as the inflation gap exceeds the employment gap [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects its cautious stance on inflation and employment dynamics [1] - The current pace of balance sheet reduction remains unchanged, signaling a steady approach to monetary policy [1] Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - New tariffs set to take effect on August 1 will not be reflected in import data until September, which may lead to a delayed inflation impact observed in October and November [1] - The potential for tariff-induced inflation could prolong the timeline for any interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is currently pricing in a 45.2% probability of a rate cut in September, suggesting that investors are preparing for the possibility of no rate reduction [1] - The absence of a rate cut in September could indicate that the risk-free interest rate will no longer serve as a positive factor for the market [1]