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金十整理:机构前瞻日本央行利率决议——7月不加息已无争议,美日贸易协议与日本国内政治局势将如何影响未来加息路径?
news flash·2025-07-31 01:37

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate, with a potential increase of at least 25 basis points by the end of the year, influenced by the US-Japan trade agreement and domestic political conditions. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Reuters survey indicates the Bank of Japan is likely to keep rates unchanged, with no rate hike expected in September, but a minimum increase of 25 basis points by year-end [1] - Capital Economics anticipates the Bank of Japan will maintain rates, possibly restarting the rate hike cycle in October, as the trade agreement mitigates key risks [1] - Dutch Bank predicts the Bank of Japan will hold rates steady and positively assess the trade agreement, with October being a potential time for a rate hike [1] - HSBC forecasts the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged, with the trade agreement potentially guiding monetary policy back to normal, leading to a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% in October [1] - Credit Agricole expects the Bank of Japan to maintain rates, with the next hike possibly occurring next year if the new government implements aggressive fiscal policies [1] - Citigroup believes the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged, with the trade agreement paving the way for an earlier-than-expected rate hike [1] - Bank of America anticipates the Bank of Japan will maintain rates, but may adjust its policy tone due to reduced trade uncertainties [1] - Mitsubishi UFJ predicts the Bank of Japan will hold rates steady while raising the core CPI forecast for FY2025, with a 25 basis point increase expected in January [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Political Factors - Nomura Securities suggests the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged, with the trade agreement opening the door for an October rate hike, although the market may be overestimating the risks from the leadership change in the ruling party [2] - Mizuho Bank expects the Bank of Japan to maintain rates, with a 25 basis point increase in October, potentially being the last hike as the government may not favor rates rising to 1% [2] - Allianz Global anticipates the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged without strong policy guidance, focusing on the assessment of changing risk environments by Governor Ueda [2]