Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in demand and production, with the PMI for July 2025 rising to 50.5%, indicating a return to expansion after two months of decline [1][2]. Demand and Supply - The new orders index for the steel industry rose to 51.9% in July, up 6.3 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone and the highest level in nearly nine months [2]. - Steel production index increased to 51.9%, up 8.4 percentage points, also reaching a nine-month high, with average daily crude steel production at 2.141 million tons, a 2.1% increase [6]. - The procurement activity of steel mills is on the rise, with the purchasing price index significantly rebounding, indicating a recovery in raw material prices after a prolonged low period [7]. Price Trends - Steel prices have shown a notable increase, with the Shanghai rebar price index rising from 3,043 CNY/ton at the beginning of July to 3,342 CNY/ton by July 25, marking a monthly increase of nearly 300 CNY/ton [8]. - Raw material prices, including iron ore and coke, have also rebounded due to increased procurement and supply disruptions, ending a long period of low prices [7]. Future Outlook - In August, steel demand is expected to continue its weak recovery, influenced by extreme weather conditions and insufficient support from the real estate sector, which saw a 20% decline in new construction area in the first half of 2025 [11]. - Steel production is anticipated to rise slightly, supported by favorable profit margins despite rising raw material costs, although uncertainties remain due to demand fluctuations and supply-demand imbalances [12].
2025年7月钢铁PMI显示：供需两端有所回暖 钢厂后市预期向好
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-07-31 02:09