银行业“内卷”的博弈困境：短期拉规模、长期藏风险

Core Viewpoint - The financial industry is experiencing intensified "involution" competition, prompting regulatory bodies to implement "anti-involution" policies to address unhealthy competitive practices [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Financial institutions are shifting from expanding new business to competing for existing market share, leading to severe "involution" competition [2]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased to 1.43% as of the end of Q1 this year, down from 1.52% at the end of 2024, moving further away from the market "red line" of 1.8% [1]. Group 2: Competitive Practices - The most common manifestation of "involution" competition is the "price war" in loans, with consumer loan rates dropping to the "2" range from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, as banks engage in aggressive marketing strategies [2]. - Regulatory scrutiny has increased, leading to a rise in annualized rates for consumer loan products above 3% since April [2]. Group 3: Risks and Consequences - The short-term strategy of expanding asset scale through "involution" may be seen as necessary for survival, but it risks compressing profit margins and increasing operational risks for banks [3]. - The practice of "data manipulation" among employees to meet performance metrics has become a known issue, with some resorting to unethical methods to achieve targets [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Response - Regulatory bodies are advocating for "anti-involution" measures to correct unhealthy development trends, with initiatives like the "Guangdong Banking Industry Anti-Unfair Competition Self-Regulation Convention (2025 Edition)" aimed at standardizing evaluation metrics and promoting rational pricing [4]. - To achieve sustainable development, banks, especially smaller ones, are encouraged to dynamically adjust their scale and pricing, enhance risk and capital management, and pursue differentiated growth strategies [4].