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国债期货：政治局会议落地 短期利空出尽期债上涨
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-31 02:15

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.40% to 118.360 yuan, the 10-year main contract up by 0.15% to 108.300 yuan, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08% to 105.630 yuan, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.03% to 102.336 yuan [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally fell by around 3 basis points, with the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" yield down by 3.85 basis points, the 10-year government bond "25 National Development 10" yield down by 3.5 basis points, and the 7-year government bond "25 Attached Government Bond 07" yield down by 3.25 basis points [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 3.09 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the full bid amount being accepted [2] - On the same day, 1.505 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 1.585 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market saw the DR001 rate decline by nearly 5 basis points to around 1.31%, while the 7-day term rates also fell by nearly 5 basis points [2] Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting highlighted a positive economic outlook, emphasizing the need to leverage development opportunities and consolidate economic recovery [3] - Fiscal policy will focus on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while monetary policy remains accommodative with potential for rate cuts [3] - The meeting also addressed support for consumption, government investment, and real estate, with a focus on optimizing market competition and addressing capacity issues in key industries [3] Operational Recommendations - The market sentiment for government bonds has improved following the Politburo meeting, with expectations for a potential recovery in bond prices [4] - Short-term strategies suggest increasing positions in government bonds to capitalize on potential price recovery, while monitoring economic data such as the July PMI [4]