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Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the non-ferrous metals sector is attributed to a combination of domestic policy statements and international trade tariffs, leading to significant price drops in related stocks and commodities [3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On July 31, the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) saw a price drop of 3.12%, with major stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company, and Northern Rare Earth falling over 4% [1]. - Despite the price drop, there is a trend of increasing investment, with the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) receiving a net subscription of 600,000 units, and three out of the last five days showing net inflows [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Sector - The recent decline is linked to a mild expression of "anti-involution" policies in a significant domestic meeting, which fell short of market expectations [3]. - Internationally, former President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, causing a 20% drop in New York copper prices shortly after the announcement [3]. - The U.S. media warns that this tariff could significantly increase costs for American manufacturers, potentially harming the manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: Positive Drivers for the Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, viewed as a continuation of the 2016 supply-side reforms [3]. - Among the 60 listed companies in the non-ferrous metals index, 27 have released mid-year performance forecasts for 2025, with 22 expecting profits, indicating strong operational resilience [3]. - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a remarkable year-to-date increase of 27.59%, leading all 31 Shenwan first-level industries [3]. - As of the end of June, the price-to-book ratio of the non-ferrous metals index was 2.24, indicating a historically low valuation, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, there are optimistic investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, with gold expected to benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar and anticipated interest rate cuts [4]. - The supply of copper smelting raw materials is constrained, while demand remains resilient, suggesting a potential upward shift in copper prices [4]. - The rare earth prices are expected to rise due to increasing demand and rigid supply conditions [4]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide diversified exposure across various metals, reducing investment risk [4].