华源证券：电力市场成储能发展决定因素 头部储能企业盈利能力有望修复

Industry Development - The energy storage industry is complex due to various technology routes, each with distinct advantages, disadvantages, and cost reduction curves, making the development path more intricate [1] - The introduction of the 136 document and the full market entry of renewable energy are expected to make economic benefits a crucial consideration for energy storage deployment, leading to the potential exit of low-quality, low-cost storage manufacturers [1] - The peak construction period for pumped storage is anticipated, with the performance of pumped storage main engine manufacturers expected to continue improving [1] Pumped Storage - Pumped storage is a mature energy storage technology that has seen development prior to the dual carbon strategy, but it does not directly produce electricity and incurs some losses [2] - The cost-sharing mechanism has historically constrained the development of pumped storage, but the implementation of a two-part pricing mechanism ("capacity price + energy price") by the National Development and Reform Commission has facilitated large-scale development [2] - According to incomplete statistics, the approved pumped storage capacity in China is projected to reach 70 GW, 65 GW, and 35 GW in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, totaling 170 GW [2] Electrochemical Energy Storage - Electrochemical energy storage was initially seen as a key solution for the volatility of renewable energy but has faced frequent policy changes, leading to chaotic development and a market dominated by low-quality products [3] - The removal of mandatory storage requirements has resulted in a significant decline in storage revenues, with future earnings expected to rely on market arbitrage as the energy market fully opens [3] - Electrochemical storage has inherent advantages in frequency regulation, and as the frequency regulation market gradually connects with the spot market, it is expected to become another important revenue source for electrochemical storage [3]