黄金中长期配置窗口或依然开启

Core Viewpoint - Gold remains a highly sought-after asset in the current macroeconomic environment, prompting discussions on its continued investment viability and optimal long-term allocation strategies [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of July 31, the Gold ETF (159937) experienced a decline of 0.5%, with a trading volume of 10.98 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.94% [2] - International spot gold traded around $3,290 per ounce, with a recent price of $3,294.34 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [2] - Gold has shown an average annual increase of over 10% since 2022, with a notable rise of over 25% in 2024, outperforming traditional stock and bond assets [4] Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - The traditional pricing framework for gold, which relied heavily on the actual interest rates in the U.S., has shifted since the second half of 2022 due to a significant increase in central bank gold purchases, rising from an average of 450 tons per year (2010-2020) to 1,100 tons (2022-2024), a 140% increase [5] - This shift has altered the relationship between gold prices and U.S. real interest rates, with gold price elasticity during interest rate declines now exceeding that during increases by over tenfold [5] Group 3: Supportive Factors for Gold - High policy uncertainty, driven by significant fiscal deficits and challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve, is expected to support gold prices [6] - The rise of populism globally has historically correlated with increases in gold prices, reflecting market concerns over future policy uncertainties [6] - The current valuation bubble in financial assets, particularly in U.S. equities, presents a potential adjustment risk, with gold serving as a hedge during market corrections [7] Group 4: Investment Value of Gold - Gold's unique attributes make it a favored asset for portfolio diversification, with a long-term correlation to other assets remaining below 10% [8] - Historical data indicates that gold has only experienced losses in 4 out of the past 21 years, with an annualized return of 9.5% [8] - The recent market conditions have returned to a healthier state, with a significant reduction in COMEX futures positions, indicating an ongoing opportunity for medium to long-term allocation in gold [8]