Macro News - The U.S. economy grew by 3% in Q2, exceeding the expected 2.4% [1] - The ADP employment number for July increased by 104,000, surpassing the expected 75,000, marking the highest growth since March [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with dissenting votes from Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut [1] - Powell emphasized a data-driven approach and stated that the current monetary policy stance is favorable, suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be temporary [1] Market Sentiment - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 54.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 45.7% [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have adjusted, with a focus on potential cuts only in October [2] - The recent GDP and ADP data indicate a robust U.S. economy, leading to a stronger dollar and pressure on precious metals [2] - Despite short-term market fluctuations, there are ongoing risks of inflation rebound and economic slowdown, suggesting that precious metals may continue to experience wide fluctuations at high levels [2]
银河期货：美联储维持利率水平不变 贵金属或继续高位宽幅震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-31 04:07