20cm速递｜科创芯片ETF国泰（589100）飘红，三重周期共振或重构半导体估值

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a comprehensive rebound driven by a combination of macro policy cycles, inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles, leading to valuation expansion [1] - North America's strong increase in computing power has significantly boosted the switch and server supply chain, while consumer electronics are benefiting from AI-side innovations, indicating a bottoming out and rebound [1] - TSMC has raised its annual revenue growth forecast from 25% to 30%, reflecting strong ongoing demand for AI and a moderate recovery in non-AI demand [1] Group 2 - The storage sector is facing technological iterations, with DDR6 expected to complete certification by 2026, significantly enhancing bandwidth and channel count [1] - The U.S. AI action plan may further restrict semiconductor exports, accelerating the self-sufficiency of domestic semiconductor manufacturing, equipment, and materials [1] - Google has increased its annual capital expenditure to $85 billion, indicating sustained strong demand for AI infrastructure, with Google AI search monthly active users surpassing 2 billion [1] Group 3 - The electronic industry's prosperity is validated by financial reports, with a strong cyclical recovery in semiconductors, as evidenced by TI's 2Q25 revenue nearing the guidance upper limit and a 15% quarter-over-quarter growth in the industrial sector [1] - The Guotai ETF (589100) tracks the Sci-Tech Chip Index (000685), which can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20%, reflecting the overall performance of Chinese technology innovation enterprises in the semiconductor industry [2] - The index includes companies involved in semiconductor materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, and packaging testing, focusing on leading enterprises with high R&D investment characteristics [2]