美联储内部暗流涌动：经济韧性VS通胀黏性，政策分歧与政治博弈下的艰难平衡

Economic Data Support and Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is supported by economic data, with Q2 GDP annualized growth reaching 3%, significantly exceeding expectations and reversing Q1's 0.5% contraction [2] - The growth was primarily driven by net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP, rather than domestic demand, indicating a weakening of real demand momentum [2] - Private domestic final sales grew only 1.2%, the lowest since late 2022, suggesting a gradual decline in underlying demand [2] Inflation and Employment Market Insights - Overall inflation data has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but the core PCE price index remains at a high level of 2.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - Structural inflation pressures are evident, with furniture prices rising 1% and appliance prices increasing by 1.9%, suggesting that tariff effects are gradually transmitting to consumer prices [3] - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.1%, but there are signs of divergence, with youth unemployment rising to 5.8%, the highest in a decade, and initial jobless claims increasing [3][4] Divergent Views Among Federal Reserve Officials - Waller's dissent is based on concerns about the labor market, indicating that economic momentum has significantly slowed and risks to achieving full employment are rising [4] - Bowman’s dissent focuses on inflation trends, suggesting that inflation is steadily returning to the 2% target and that the actual impact of trade policies on inflation is minimal [5] - Both officials emphasize the need for a cautious approach to potential rate cuts, reflecting differing views on the economic outlook and inflation dynamics [4][5] Market Expectations and Rate Cut Possibilities - Following the July meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut have cooled, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 64% to 45% [7] - The upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining the likelihood of a rate cut, with indicators such as core PCE inflation and unemployment rates being closely monitored [8] - The Federal Reserve is currently divided into three camps regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, reflecting the complexity of the economic landscape [7] Policy Direction and Upcoming Events - The July meeting marks a significant evolution in the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, with two officials dissenting for the first time since 1993, highlighting internal divisions [9] - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to provide important guidance on future monetary policy, with historical precedents indicating its significant influence on market expectations [10] - The next FOMC meeting on September 16 will be a critical observation point, with substantial debate on whether to initiate a rate cut cycle [10]