反内卷改善企业预期！短期因素造成制造业PMI环比微降

Core Points - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a decline but remaining above the critical point [1][3] - Economic recovery fundamentals remain solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [1][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI's decline is attributed to traditional production off-seasons and extreme weather events, leading to a weaker demand side [2][3] - Despite the overall PMI decline, production activities in manufacturing are still expanding, particularly in the equipment and high-tech sectors, which are crucial for economic growth [3][5] Price Indices - Among the 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, the purchasing price index and the ex-factory price index have risen, indicating improved market conditions in certain sectors [5] - The main raw material purchasing price index has risen to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, suggesting a potential recovery in material costs [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline, but summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects in retail, travel, and entertainment sectors [7][9] - Retail activity is increasing, with the retail business activity index rising above the critical point, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [8] Future Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, is expected to support stable economic expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year [1][9] - The positive impact of summer consumption is anticipated to continue into August, contributing to economic recovery [9]