短期情绪仍有可能反复 后续纯碱或成本区间震荡

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector is predominantly bearish, with soda ash futures experiencing a significant decline, reaching a low of 1249.00 yuan/ton and a drop of approximately 5.10% [1] - The current market sentiment for soda ash is influenced by macroeconomic factors, leading to potential volatility in the short term, while the fundamental outlook remains bearish due to high supply and weak demand [1] - The industry is facing challenges such as increased supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, which are unlikely to improve in the short term, suggesting a likely medium to long-term price fluctuation [2] Group 2 - The soda ash market is affected by ongoing production costs, with expectations of a decrease in costs by the end of 2024, while raw salt and thermal coal prices remain high, providing some support near the cost line [2] - The supply side is characterized by narrow fluctuations, with ongoing maintenance expected to impact production, while the demand for heavy soda ash is decreasing due to losses in the photovoltaic glass sector [1][2] - The market requires close monitoring of raw material price fluctuations and the implementation of policies aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity, which will affect supply adjustments and inventory digestion [1]