中国汽车流通协会：2025年7月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为57.2%

Core Viewpoint - The latest "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" indicates a slight decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity, with the index at 57.2% in July 2025, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.6 percentage points month-on-month [1] Market Conditions - July marks a traditional off-season for the automotive market, influenced by the phased withdrawal of subsidy policies, reduced automotive consumer finance rebates, and decreased promotional efforts from manufacturers. This has led to increased consumer hesitation, with 47.7% of dealers reporting a downward trend in the overall market, with declines exceeding 5% [2] - Despite a slight overshoot in demand due to mid-year sales, the effective digestion of previously accumulated orders and the summer tourism boom have kept market activity relatively high. However, extreme weather and manufacturers' summer breaks have contributed to a slight decrease in dealer inventory levels compared to the end of June [2] - Passenger car sales in July are expected to be around 1.9 million units, slightly above expectations [2] Dealer Challenges - Dealers are facing ongoing challenges, including a decline in customer foot traffic, extended purchase decision cycles due to market conditions and policy adjustments, and lower-than-expected transaction rates. Additionally, the slowing inventory turnover is causing financial pressure, squeezing the gross profit margins on new car sales and increasing operational stress for dealers [2] Index Breakdown - The inventory warning index for July shows a regional breakdown: the national index is 57.2%, with the Northern region at 60.5%, Eastern region at 59.8%, Western region at 52.9%, and Southern region at 53.4% [4] - By brand type, the index for luxury and imported brands, as well as joint venture brands, has increased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands has decreased [7] Future Market Outlook - The automotive market is expected to operate steadily in August, with short-term demand being suppressed by extreme weather conditions. However, the upcoming school season and promotional activities, such as the 818 car purchase festival and various auto shows, are anticipated to boost terminal sales [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have issued a third batch of 69 billion yuan in national subsidies to support local implementation of trade-in policies, with a fourth batch expected in October. This is expected to positively impact the market performance in August compared to July [9] - The China Automobile Circulation Association advises dealers to rationally estimate actual market demand based on their circumstances and to enhance the promotion of trade-in and scrapping policies to boost consumer confidence while prioritizing cost reduction and efficiency [9]