西南酒价半年图谱：稳价难！去库存难！白酒下半年靠啥翻盘？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is facing significant challenges in the first half of 2025, with price fluctuations affecting both high-end and mid-range brands, driven by insufficient consumer confidence, high channel inventory, and the impact of counterfeit products [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - High-end liquor brands experienced price drops on e-commerce platforms during key promotional events, with brands like Guojiao 1573 and Wuliangye seeing declines in retail prices [2][4]. - The overall market retail average for high-end liquor in the Southwest region has shown a downward trend compared to earlier in the year, with some brands experiencing price inversions between wholesale and retail [2][4]. - A significant portion of counterfeit products has been identified, with 16.65% of the 1610 bottles tested by Wuliangye found to be fake, highlighting the challenges posed by e-commerce pricing chaos and counterfeit goods [4][5]. Group 2: Strategies for Price Stabilization - Liquor companies are implementing "control quantity and support price" strategies, including halting supply or strictly controlling quotas for various brands to stabilize prices [5][6]. - Wuliangye is adjusting its contract volumes by 0%-50% for certain channels and is trialing direct distribution models in major cities to reduce costs for distributors [5][6]. - Ensuring distributor profitability is a key focus, with companies emphasizing the need for profitable channels to maintain product promotion and prevent price drops due to excess inventory [6][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Transformation - The liquor industry is shifting from a product-centric approach to a consumer-centric model, focusing on service upgrades, product innovation, and channel restructuring [1][10]. - Companies are targeting younger consumers by developing lower-alcohol products, as research indicates a preference for lower-alcohol beverages among younger demographics [12][10]. - The rise of instant retail and e-commerce platforms is becoming a crucial area for growth, with companies adapting to the changing consumer preferences for convenience and transparency in purchasing [13][10].