跌停！商品市场持续“降温”，后市如何走

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, with major declines observed in various popular products, particularly in the black series and photovoltaic industry chain products [1][2]. Group 1: Commodity Market Performance - On July 31, domestic futures opened lower, with many popular products experiencing declines over 5%, including焦煤 (coking coal), 玻璃 (glass), and 纯碱 (soda ash) [1][2]. - The 文华 commodity index fell nearly 1.5% in the morning session, with焦煤 (coking coal) and 玻璃 (glass) seeing significant drops, including a 8.22% decline in the glass main contract [2]. - By the afternoon, the commodity market accelerated its decline, with the 文华 commodity index dropping over 2% [2]. Group 2: Black Series Products - The black series products, including 硅铁 (ferrosilicon), 锰硅 (manganese silicon), and 焦炭 (coke), experienced widespread declines, with 焦煤 (coking coal) hitting the limit down [2][3]. -焦煤 (coking coal) prices reached 1045.5元/吨, while 焦炭 (coke) and 螺纹钢 (rebar) also saw significant drops of 4.93% and 4.19%, respectively [2]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry Chain - The three major products in the photovoltaic industry chain, including 碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate), 工业硅 (industrial silicon), and 多晶硅 (polysilicon), experienced deep corrections, with 碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate) and 工业硅 (industrial silicon) dropping 6% [4]. - The main contract for 多晶硅 (polysilicon) fell by 7.81%, closing at 49130元/吨, while 工业硅 (industrial silicon) and 碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate) closed at 8760元/吨 and 68280元/吨, respectively [4]. - The overall production of 多晶硅 (polysilicon) is expected to approach 110,000 tons, with a significant increase anticipated in August [4][5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - The sentiment in the commodity market has cooled following the recent macroeconomic developments, including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [2][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for standard improvements in key industries like photovoltaics, which may lead to the exit of outdated production capacity [6]. - Recent adjustments in trading rules, including limits on open positions for major contracts, aim to curb speculative trading and manage market risks [5][6].