每日机构分析：7月31日

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan has raised its inflation forecast, indicating a higher likelihood of interest rate hikes, which has led to a slight appreciation of the yen [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that increased tariffs will raise the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. by approximately 14 percentage points by 2025, with a further increase of 3 percentage points to around 20% in the following year, putting pressure on U.S. economic growth [2] - The U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter is projected to be only about 1%, with a recession risk estimated at 30% due to the impact of tariffs [2] Group 2 - The French Foreign Trade Bank anticipates a steepening trend in the U.S. Treasury yield curve in the medium term, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in October [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in July has raised the threshold for a rate cut in September, with some committee members still supporting a 25 basis point cut, indicating internal divisions within the FOMC [3] - Julius Baer economists predict that U.S. economic growth will slow due to weak private consumption and cautious investment in real estate and equipment [3] Group 3 - Barclays suggests that growth in artificial intelligence investments and increased household wealth may continue to support the U.S. economy, particularly consumer spending among affluent groups [4] - Renaissance Macro Research analysts warn that low unemployment rates may create a false sense of security in the labor market, masking a gradual deterioration [4]