跌停，商品市场持续“降温”后市如何走？

Group 1: Market Overview - The commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, with major futures contracts opening lower on July 31, leading to substantial drops in popular products like coking coal, glass, and soda ash, with declines exceeding 5% [1][2] - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell nearly 1.5% in early trading, with notable declines in black series products and the glass sector, which saw a drop of over 8% by the end of the trading day [2][4] Group 2: Specific Commodity Performance - Coking coal futures hit the limit down, closing at 1045.5 yuan/ton, while glass futures dropped 8.22% to 1117 yuan/ton, and silicon iron fell 6.62% [2][4] - The three major products in the photovoltaic industry chain, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, experienced significant declines, with polysilicon dropping 7.81% to 49130 yuan/ton and lithium carbonate down 4.66% to 68280 yuan/ton [4][5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply is stabilizing with upstream coal mine inventories at reasonable levels, while demand from coking enterprises remains strong despite current production losses [3][5] - The photovoltaic industry is facing a deep adjustment, with polysilicon production rates at historical lows of 30-40%, leading to an improved supply situation, while lithium carbonate faces pressure from increasing inventories despite stable domestic production [5][6] Group 4: Regulatory and Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has reiterated its commitment to "anti-involution" policies, which may support the market but have led to a cooling of speculative demand [6] - Recent adjustments by the exchange on margin requirements and trading limits for major contracts aim to curb speculative trading and manage market risks [5][6]