Where Will Pfizer (PFE) Be in 5 Years?

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is expected to grow significantly over the next five years despite facing a patent cliff and declining sales from its COVID-19 vaccine [2] Group 1: Drug Portfolio Changes - Pfizer's current top-selling drugs include Eliquis, Prevnar, Vyndaqel/Vyndamax, and Ibrance, but this list will likely change by 2030 [3] - Eliquis and Prevnar 13 will lose U.S. patent protection next year, followed by Ibrance in 2027, with other drugs like Inlyta, Xeljanz, and Xtandi also going off-patent within the next two years [4] - Pfizer has already launched Prevnar 20 as a successor to Prevnar 13 and is expanding its portfolio through acquisitions and internal R&D [5] Group 2: Oncology Focus - Pfizer is expected to become a larger player in oncology, with rapid sales growth in drugs like Padcev, Lorbrena, Elrexfio, and Talzenna [6] - Of the 30 late-stage programs in Pfizer's pipeline, 20 are targeting cancer indications, including new target indications for existing drugs and promising new candidates [7] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - Pfizer aims to be more efficient by optimizing operations, expecting to save around $1.5 billion from the first phase of this effort, with a total goal of $4.5 billion in savings [9] - The company anticipates that operational efficiencies will also enhance its R&D efforts, focusing on potential blockbuster therapies [10] Group 4: Company Growth and Market Cap - Pfizer is predicted to be a larger company in five years, with modest growth expected beyond that [11] - The company's market cap could approach $200 billion by 2030, up from around $137 billion today, if negative sentiment around its prospects diminishes [12] Group 5: Dividend Commitment - Pfizer is expected to continue paying a strong dividend in 2030, as management views the dividend as a critical component of its capital allocation strategy [13] - The company is unlikely to jeopardize its dividend program, which remains a key reason for investor interest [14]