Up Over 100% Year to Date, Is Roblox Stock a No-Brainer Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Roblox's stock has more than doubled since the beginning of 2025, driven by growth in daily active users (DAUs), increased engagement, and accelerated bookings growth, although it remains about 12% below its all-time high from November 2021 [1] Company Growth Metrics - Roblox's bookings growth was 45% in 2021, slowing to 5% in 2022, but rebounding to 23% in 2023 and expected to be 24% in 2024 [6] - DAU growth was 40% in 2021, 23% in 2022, and has stabilized at 22% in 2023 and 21% in 2024 [6] - Average bookings per DAU (ABPDAU) growth was 4% in 2021, declined by 14% in 2022, and has shown slight improvements with 0% in 2023 and 2% in 2024 [7] - Hours engaged growth was 35% in 2021, 19% in 2022, and has increased to 22% in 2023 and 23% in 2024 [7] Recent Performance - In Q1 2025, bookings increased by 31% year over year, DAUs grew by 26% to 97.8 million, ABPDAU improved by 4%, and hours engaged climbed by 30% to 21.7 million [8] - Analysts expect bookings to grow by 27% for the full year, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 47% [8] Future Growth Drivers - Near-term growth is expected to be driven by new game titles, expansion of the metaverse advertising platform, rollout of advanced developer tools, and overseas expansion [9] - From 2024 to 2027, analysts project a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% for bookings and 37% for adjusted EBITDA [9] Financial Considerations - Roblox has an enterprise value of $79 billion, with stock valued at 12 times next year's bookings and 49 times its adjusted EBITDA [9] - The company is expected to remain unprofitable in the near term due to increased infrastructure spending, investments in user safeguards, and high stock-based compensation expenses [10] - Roblox's high debt-to-equity ratio of 24.1, including over $1 billion in long-term debt, may complicate future fundraising efforts [11]