美联储7月议息会议继续“按兵不动” 9月降息或为时过早

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change in rates this year [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have been pushed back, with analysts predicting a cautious approach from the Fed due to rising inflation, suggesting a potential cut in December rather than September [2][10] - The FOMC's statement indicated a moderation in economic activity growth, acknowledging challenges in achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market reacted mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, S&P 500 down 0.12%, and Nasdaq up 0.15% following the Fed's announcement [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the press conference were perceived as hawkish, leading to a sell-off in short-term government bonds [2][6] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, particularly in light of President Trump's influence and upcoming vacancies on the FOMC [7][9] Group 3 - Analysts believe that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September, with a focus on upcoming inflation and employment data to guide future decisions [6][10] - The Fed's commitment to maintaining its independence is seen as crucial for price stability and sustainable growth, despite political pressures [9][10] - The potential for a new Fed chair aligned with Trump's views could impact future monetary policy decisions, but the structure of the FOMC limits any single individual's influence [9][10]