Market Overview - The bond market continued its warm trend on July 31, with the release of the July official PMI data not exerting pressure on the performance of bonds, leading to an overall increase in government bond futures and a general decline in interbank bond yields by approximately 2 basis points [1][2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 47.8 billion yuan in the open market, while the overall funding situation remained stable, with a slight increase in overnight repurchase rates at the month-end [1][5] Bond Futures and Yields - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.57% to 119.120, the 10-year main contract up by 0.17% to 108.485, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08% to 105.725 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds saw a slight decrease, with the 10-year government bond yield down nearly 2 basis points, reported at 1.786% for "25国开10" and 1.703% for "25附息国债11" [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose on July 30, with the 2-year yield increasing by 7.38 basis points to 3.941% and the 10-year yield rising by 4.57 basis points to 4.368% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 0.5 basis points to 3.357%, while the 10-year German bond yield decreased by 0.3 basis points to 2.703% [3] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year terms had winning yields of 1.3677%, 1.6187%, and 1.7341%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 4.15, 4.49, and 3.52 [4] Funding Conditions - The People's Bank of China announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 283.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [5] - The Shibor rates for short-term products mostly declined, with the overnight rate increasing by 7.5 basis points to 1.392% [5] Economic Indicators - The official non-manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 50.1, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, also down by 0.4 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [6] - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2, down 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [6] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the political bureau meeting's cautious stance on real estate and anti-involution reflects a long-term planning focus rather than short-term stimulus [7] - China Galaxy Securities indicated limited incremental changes from the political bureau meeting, suggesting a downward trend in bond yields, while monitoring risk preferences and government bond supply [7] - CICC highlighted the potential for fiscal policy adjustments in the fourth quarter, with a positive outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year [7]
债市日报:7月31日
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-07-31 09:31