智通财经网·2025-07-31 09:49Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International initiates coverage on China Biopharmaceutical (01177) with a "Buy" rating, setting a target price of HKD 9.40 based on a 10-year DCF model with a WACC of 9.3% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 11.4%/10.5%/9.6% in 2025E/26E/27E, while adjusted net profit is projected to increase by 12.2%/11.5%/10.5% during the same period [1] Group 2: Innovation and R&D - The company is significantly increasing its R&D investment, with an expected 17.6% of revenue allocated to R&D in 2024, up from 9.9% in 2019 [1] - By the end of 2024, the company will have received approval for 17 innovative drugs, with innovative product revenue accounting for 42% of total revenue, compared to 11% in 2015 [1] - The company has been actively engaging in License in transactions, averaging over 3 deals per year from 2019 to 2024, enhancing its innovative drug pipeline [1] Group 3: Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The company has several products with potential for overseas licensing collaborations, including TQC3721, Rovafixitinib, TQB2102, TQB3616, TQA2225, LM-108, LM-168, and LM-364 [1] - The innovative R&D focuses on four key areas: oncology, liver disease/metabolism, respiratory, and surgical/pain management, with a rich pipeline of innovative drugs [2] - Anlotinib has become a cornerstone product with 9 approved indications and 4 NDA submissions, further expanding its sales potential through combination therapies [2] Group 4: Biosimilars and Generic Drugs - The company has 7 approved biosimilars with a total market capacity of RMB 24 billion in 2024, and sales are expected to grow rapidly, particularly for the first generic version of Pertuzumab [3] - The chemical generic drug business has shown resilience during recent policy adjustments, with a projected revenue growth of 3.1% YoY in 2024 [3] - The impact of centralized procurement on generic drugs has largely dissipated, with the tenth batch of centralized procurement accounting for only 1% of the company's total revenue in 2024 [3]