7月31日金市晚评：美联储鹰派压制黄金 PCE数据前多空激战

Core Insights - The US dollar index experienced a significant decline, trading around 96.37, while gold prices rose to approximately 3310.23 USD/oz, marking a 1.06% increase [1][2]. Economic Analysis - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated no specific preference regarding discussions on interest rate cuts in the upcoming September meeting. This, combined with better-than-expected US macroeconomic data, led to a rise in the dollar index to a two-month high, negatively impacting non-yielding assets like gold [3]. - Investors are awaiting new data, particularly the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which has provided some support for gold prices as dollar bulls have paused their aggressive strategies [3][4]. - Despite pressure from President Donald Trump and allies to lower borrowing costs, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time. This decision faced dissent from two board members, marking the first occurrence of dual dissenting votes since 1993 [3]. Employment and GDP Data - The Automatic Data Processing report indicated that 104,000 jobs were added in the US private sector in July, contrasting with a revised decrease of 23,000 jobs in the previous month. Additionally, the US Commerce Department reported a 3.0% annualized GDP growth rate for Q2, reversing a contraction of 0.5% in Q1 [4]. Gold Price Movement - Gold prices fell below an ascending triangle pattern on July 25, and the subsequent decline fulfilled the measured drop from the triangle consolidation. A rebound began from the lower boundary of the range, but upward movement is constrained by bearish moving averages, necessitating a stabilization period for the 10, 20, and 50 EMA before a renewed bullish attack can occur [5].