Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-07-31 12:00Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding a 50% tariff on certain copper products has led to significant volatility in copper prices, impacting both domestic and global markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - On July 31, A-share copper mining stocks experienced a collective decline, with major companies like Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum falling over 4% [1] - The announcement caused a dramatic drop in copper futures, with COMEX copper prices plummeting over 18% to $4.63 per pound, marking the largest single-day decline in history [2] - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper contracts narrowed significantly, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The new tariff policy is seen as a correction to the previously inflated expectations for U.S. copper prices, leading to a more balanced import strategy [3] - U.S. refined copper imports surged to 864,000 tons in the first half of the year, a 147% increase year-on-year, indicating a supply surplus [3] - If the price difference between U.S. and LME copper contracts turns negative, it could lead to a significant outflow of copper stocks from the U.S. to Asia and Europe, creating inventory pressures [3] Group 3: Future Policy Uncertainty - The prospect of U.S. refined copper import tariffs is not entirely off the table, with potential plans for a 15% tariff in 2027 and a 30% tariff in 2028 [4] - The volatility in U.S. copper prices poses challenges for companies in managing risks effectively, as market conditions are increasingly influenced by geopolitical factors [4] - The impact of the new tariff policy on China's copper exports is expected to be limited, with China accounting for only 5.2% of U.S. copper imports [4]