莱坊：香港楼价仍面临压力 预计今年一般住宅将下跌最多3%

Group 1: Residential Market Insights - The Hong Kong residential market saw a 17% month-on-month increase in total transaction volume in June, driven by a 28% surge in primary residential sales [1] - Despite the increase in transaction volume, residential prices are under pressure, with a 0.9% decline year-to-date and a 6.2% year-on-year decrease as of May [1] - The most sought-after residential properties are priced between 12 to 15 million HKD, with the most active areas being Wong Chuk Hang and Ma On Shan [1] - The luxury residential market recorded 54 transactions exceeding 78 million HKD in the second quarter, a 29% increase from the previous quarter [1] - The rental market for luxury properties is performing well, with a 0.7% month-on-month increase in May and a 1.4% increase year-to-date, driven by demand from non-local professionals and students [1] - The forecast for general residential prices is a potential decline of up to 3% this year, while luxury and general residential rents are expected to rise by 3% to 5% [1] Group 2: Office Market Dynamics - The Grade A office market is showing signs of recovery, with hedge funds being the primary tenants and significant leasing activity, such as Jane Street leasing 223,000 square feet in Central [2] - The demand for well-located, high-quality office spaces in Central remains strong, particularly for units sized between 3,000 to 5,000 square feet [2] - The IPO market in Hong Kong is performing well, attracting mainland enterprises, which is expected to boost office leasing demand in the second half of the year [2] - The Kowloon office market faces challenges due to global trade uncertainties, with subdued leasing activity noted in Kowloon East [2] - Rental prices in Tsim Sha Tsui have seen a slight increase of 0.7%, with demand primarily from the insurance, finance, and professional services sectors [2] Group 3: Retail Market Trends - The retail sector is experiencing a slowdown in expansion plans as local consumer spending decreases despite rising incomes [3] - The interest of mainland tourists in luxury goods has diminished, impacting retail strategies [3] - The consumption patterns of local citizens are evolving, with Generation Z becoming a key driver in luxury spending, emphasizing brand value, sustainability, and pricing transparency [3] - Although the tourism industry in Hong Kong is recovering, retail consumption across various sectors has not fully rebounded [3]