美联储青睐通胀指标回升，消费支出几近停滞

Core Inflation and Consumer Spending - The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated to a year-high in June, with a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, indicating limited progress in inflation relief over the past year [1][3] - Consumer spending showed almost zero growth, with real consumer spending only slightly recovering after a decline in May, reflecting the weakest growth since the pandemic [1][4] Economic Divergence - There is a tug-of-war in the economy, with stagnant inflation relief and concerns that tariffs from the Trump administration may further increase prices, while a weak labor market could lead to broader economic slowdown [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at its fifth consecutive meeting, but two members expressed dissent in favor of a 25 basis point cut, highlighting divisions among policymakers [3] Consumer Behavior and Market Reactions - Stock index futures maintained their upward trend following the data release, while Treasury yields continued to decline, and the dollar remained stable [4] - Consumer spending growth is primarily driven by a rebound in non-durable goods, while durable goods purchases have declined for three consecutive months, indicating weak discretionary spending [4] Labor Market and Inflation Dynamics - The root of consumer weakness lies in a cooling labor market, with inflation-adjusted disposable income remaining flat after a decline in May, and wage growth nearly stagnant [7] - The June price increases were mainly driven by home goods, sports equipment, and clothing, reflecting the impact of import tariffs on consumer prices [7] - Key service sector inflation, excluding energy and housing, rose 0.2% month-over-month for the second consecutive month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [7]