7月超半数债券基金业绩告负 债基赎回潮延续至月末

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure as more than half of bond funds reported negative returns in July, with pure bond funds averaging a return of -0.13% and less than 35% of products showing positive returns [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 31, over 40% of the more than 6,600 bond funds have seen a decline in net value this year, with more than 50 funds experiencing a drop of over 1% in July [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF recorded a decline of over 1.6% within the month, while some bond funds heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds saw net value declines approaching 2% [2] - Only 140 products among medium to long-term pure bond funds have returned over 2% this year, while over 400 products have reported negative returns [2] Group 2: Redemption Pressure - A significant redemption wave occurred on July 24, marking the largest single-day redemption since the "9·24" market event last year, with nearly 100 billion yuan in bonds sold in one day and over 120 billion yuan sold in three days [2] - By July 31, over 40 bond funds had announced adjustments to their net value precision due to large redemptions, a notable increase from 14 in May and 19 in June [2][3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current adjustment in the bond market is closely related to the "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds, with increased risk appetite leading to a shift of funds from the bond market to the equity market [5] - Analysts noted that the scale of bond funds has seen a significant drop in growth compared to stock funds, with bond fund net values experiencing substantial declines [5] - The last trading day of July saw major selling in interest rate bonds primarily from funds, while buying was mainly from banking institutions, indicating a cautious stance from brokerages and insurance funds [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that the sentiment impact of "anti-involution" policies may ease with a decline in commodity prices, while the bond market is generally viewed as a natural bull market due to its coupon characteristics [7] - Long-term trends indicate that the bond market in China typically exhibits a "bull long, bear short" pattern, with past adjustments showing a capacity for rapid recovery [7] - Current market conditions reflect an "involution" scenario, with funds maintaining high durations historically, and a focus on discovering credit spreads as liquidity remains loose [7]