制造业PMI低于荣枯线 国常会部署贴息政策促消费

Economic Overview - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to enhance macroeconomic policy effectiveness and stimulate internal economic growth [1] - The State Council reiterated the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies to better stimulate consumption potential [1][7] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month below the growth threshold [1][4] - The new orders index for manufacturing fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index remained at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [6] Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [6] - The ex-factory price index increased to 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [6] Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [8] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, indicating a mixed outlook across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was reported at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion range [10] - The construction business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by seasonal weather conditions, while infrastructure-related activities continued to show robust growth [10] Consumer Behavior - The summer consumption effect began to show, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending intentions [11] - However, the accommodation and catering sectors remained below 50%, suggesting that summer consumption has not yet significantly impacted these areas [11][12] Policy Implications - The Central Political Bureau's meeting highlighted the importance of releasing internal demand potential and implementing consumption-boosting actions [12] - The focus on service consumption is expected to play a crucial role in meeting public needs and driving consumption industry upgrades [12]