Can Phosphate Binders Drive DaVita Stock Before Q2 Earnings?

Core Insights - DaVita Inc. (DVA) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 5, with previous earnings per share (EPS) of $2.00 exceeding estimates by 14.3% [1] - The company has shown a mixed performance over the last four quarters, beating estimates three times and missing once, with an average earnings surprise of 3.6% [1] Factors Influencing Performance - DaVita's performance in the first quarter of 2025 was bolstered by strong sales of phosphate binders, which are essential for dialysis patients [2] - The transition of phosphate binders from Medicare Part D to the dialysis benefit by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is expected to continue benefiting DaVita's revenues [2] - However, the company is facing challenges with new patient starts due to supply constraints in peritoneal dialysis solutions, which may negatively impact volume growth in 2025 [3][16] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DaVita's second-quarter 2025 revenues is $3.30 billion, reflecting a 3.5% increase from the previous year [4] - The consensus estimate for EPS is $2.70, indicating a 4.3% rise from the prior-year period [4] Earnings Prediction - DaVita is predicted to beat earnings estimates, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +6.67% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5][6] Share Price Performance - Over the past three months, DaVita's shares have increased by 1.1%, outperforming the Medical - Outpatient and Home Healthcare sector's decline of 2.8% [7] - The company's shares have also outperformed the Zacks Medical sector's decrease of 1.6%, but lagged behind the S&P 500's growth of 13.9% [7] Valuation Metrics - DaVita's forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 0.8X, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.6X [11] - The company is trading at a discount compared to peers like Encompass Health and Elanco Animal Health, which have P/S ratios of 1.8X and 1.5X, respectively [12] Long-Term Investment Outlook - Management anticipates variability in drug mix, particularly with iron-based binders, which could impact operating income from phosphate binders, projected to be at the upper end of $0 to $50 million for the year [15] - Despite challenges, DaVita's core business strength and financial stability present a favorable long-term investment opportunity [17][18]