低利率周期银行理财配置变局

Core Insights - The banking wealth management sector is adjusting its asset allocation strategies in response to declining interest rates, shifting from bonds and equity assets to public funds, cash, bank deposits, and non-standardized debt assets [1][4] Asset Allocation Changes - As of the end of June, the balance of wealth management products invested in bonds and equity assets was 13.78 trillion yuan and 0.78 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.8% and 2.38% of total investment assets, respectively. This represents a decrease from 43.9% and 2.6% at the end of the first quarter [2] - The proportion of public fund allocations in wealth management products has significantly increased, with a balance of 1.38 trillion yuan, representing 4.2% of total investment assets, up from 0.93 trillion yuan in the previous quarter [2][3] Shift to Low-Volatility Assets - Wealth management products have increased their allocation to low or non-volatile assets, with cash and bank deposits totaling 8.18 trillion yuan and non-standardized debt assets at 1.82 trillion yuan, representing 24.8% and 5.52% of total investment assets, respectively [3] Declining Yield Trends - The average annualized yield of wealth management products has dropped to 2.12% in the first half of the year, down from 2.65% in 2024, indicating increasing difficulty in generating returns from fixed-income assets [3][4] Credit Bond Dominance - Credit bonds remain the primary focus within bond allocations, with a total of 12.79 trillion yuan held, accounting for 38.79% of total investment assets, although this is a decrease of 2.34 percentage points from the previous year [2][4] Market Growth and Future Outlook - As of the end of June, the total scale of the banking wealth management market was 30.67 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.4% year-to-date and 7.54% year-on-year. However, the growth rate may slow down in the medium to long term due to declining yields [4][5] - Analysts predict that while short-term growth may continue due to deposit pricing effects, the attractiveness of wealth management products may diminish as yields decline, leading to increased pressure on expansion [5][6]