美联储为何对降息诉求视而不见

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Internal Disagreements - The decision reflects a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve, with 9 out of 12 voting members supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while two members advocated for a 25 basis point cut [1] - This marks the first time in over 30 years that two Federal Reserve governors have publicly expressed differing opinions on interest rate decisions, indicating deep-seated divisions in monetary policy [1] - Chairman Powell acknowledged these divisions but emphasized that the majority believes inflation remains slightly above the 2% target and that the current policy rate is in a "moderately restrictive" range [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Political Pressures - Financial markets experienced notable volatility following Powell's remarks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 171.71 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 31.38 points [2] - Political pressure is increasing, with President Trump publicly calling for immediate rate cuts and suggesting that a reduction to 1% could save the government significant debt costs [2] - Powell reiterated the importance of basing monetary policy adjustments on solid economic and inflation data, underscoring the need to respect the independence of the central bank [2] Group 3: Future Policy Outlook and Economic Indicators - Powell's statements indicate a hawkish stance, with no signals for a rate cut in September, emphasizing that the current rate is only "moderately restrictive" and that the labor market remains strong [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 68% to 45%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate increased to 55% following Powell's comments [3] - The impact of tariffs on inflation remains a critical factor for future policy decisions, with Powell noting that the transmission of tariff costs is still in its early stages and that the overall impact is yet to be fully assessed [4] Group 4: Tariff Implications and Trade Negotiations - Market participants warn that U.S. importers' buffer inventories are depleting, which may enhance the motivation to pass on tariff costs [4] - Powell highlighted that while many U.S. companies intend to pass on cost pressures to consumers, competitive market conditions limit their actual ability to do so [4] - Recent signs of easing tensions in U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Europe trade negotiations could potentially reduce inflationary pressures, providing the Federal Reserve with more flexibility in policy responses [4] Group 5: Key Economic Reports Ahead - The upcoming employment reports and inflation data before the September meeting are expected to be crucial in breaking the current policy deadlock [5] - The Federal Reserve's ability to balance its policy independence with the need to respond to current economic realities will be a significant test of its policy acumen [5]