Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-07-31 23:13Core Insights - The overall retail price of liquor in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has shown a downward trend, with significant price adjustments across various brands and categories [2][3][16] - The high-end liquor market, particularly represented by products like Moutai, has experienced notable price declines, reflecting broader industry challenges such as high inventory levels and weak consumer demand [4][16][20] Price Trends - The average retail price of Moutai has decreased from approximately 2,624 yuan at the beginning of the year to around 2,368 yuan, marking a decline of 256 yuan [4][10] - Among the 21 monitored products, 15 have seen a decrease in average prices, while only 4 products experienced slight increases [3][10] - The price of the eighth generation of Wuliangye has dropped by 47 yuan, while the average price of Qinghua Lang has decreased by 93 yuan [5][10] Market Dynamics - The white liquor market is undergoing a significant adjustment phase, with many companies facing high inventory pressures and a competitive landscape that has intensified [2][16] - The average inventory turnover days for the industry have reached 900 days, with 60% of companies experiencing price inversion, particularly in the 800-1500 yuan price range [17][18] Consumer Behavior - Despite the overall price decline, the demand for mid to low-end liquor remains relatively stable, with products priced below 500 yuan showing less volatility [19][20] - The market is witnessing a shift towards high-cost performance products, as consumers become more price-sensitive [18][19] Regional Insights - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 monitored products have seen price declines, with Moutai's price dropping from 2,648 yuan to 2,305 yuan [9][10] - Shenzhen's market has shown varied price performance, but the overall trend is downward, with significant drops in the prices of several key products [11][12] - East Guangdong's market has experienced price fluctuations driven by seasonal demand and promotional activities, with Moutai's price dropping to 2,299 yuan during peak sales periods [13][14] Future Outlook - The "Bay Area Liquor Price" index will undergo optimization to better reflect market conditions, including the addition of new retail channels and the inclusion of more representative products [22][23] - The industry is expected to continue facing challenges related to pricing strategies, inventory management, and consumer demand dynamics [16][20]