纽约铜价一日暴跌20% 特朗普50%关税引发全球铜市巨震

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the White House regarding a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper futures plummeting by 21% to $4.33 per pound, reflecting a major shift in market expectations and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while refined cathode copper and scrap copper are exempt from this tariff [3][4]. - This targeted tariff approach contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products, leading to a rapid liquidation of accumulated copper inventories in the U.S. [2][4]. - The announcement has caused a reversal in market sentiment, with many traders who anticipated a broader tariff now facing unexpected losses [4][6]. Group 2: Inventory Dynamics - Since February, U.S. copper inventories have surged from under 100,000 tons to approximately 250,000 tons by July 30, driven by preemptive imports in anticipation of tariffs [6][7]. - In contrast, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories have decreased significantly, from about 270,900 tons in February to around 90,000 tons by early July, indicating a stark divergence in inventory trends between the two markets [6][7]. - The influx of copper into the U.S. is expected to continue, with projections indicating that total copper imports for the year could reach 1.36 million tons, significantly higher than the previous year's 900,000 tons [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Chain Disruption - The new tariff policy is likely to disrupt global copper supply chains, pushing major copper-exporting countries like Chile to redirect their shipments towards Asia and Europe [8][9]. - The increased costs associated with tariffs may lead industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and renewable energy sectors, to seek domestic alternatives or adjust their supply chains [8][9]. - The overall impact of the tariff on the copper market could lead to a reevaluation of demand dynamics, particularly under the looming threat of a potential U.S. economic downturn [9].