铜关税“乌龙”引发套利交易崩溃，高盛：全球铜流重构或需数月

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, which diverges significantly from market expectations that anticipated tariffs on refined copper itself [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - As of August 1, the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, including copper tubes, wires, rods, and sheets [1][2]. - Refined copper, copper concentrates, and scrap copper are explicitly excluded from the tariff, which was a surprise to the market [1][2]. - The U.S. Commerce Department has suggested delaying tariffs on refined copper until 2027, with a proposed tax rate of 15% increasing to 30% by 2028 [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, CME copper futures prices plummeted over 20%, and the price premium of CME copper over LME copper narrowed significantly from nearly $1200 per ton to under $150 per ton [1][3]. - The influx of refined copper into the U.S. prior to the tariff implementation has led to a significant increase in CME warehouse inventories, reaching 232,195 tons, the highest level since 2004 [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Structural Challenges - The current U.S. smelting and processing capacity may not be sufficient to handle the increased copper supply, raising concerns about the ability to absorb new resources [4]. - The policy mandates that by 2027, 25% of domestic copper concentrates and recycled copper must be sold in the U.S., increasing to 40% within two years, which may create structural pressures on the existing system [4]. - Rising storage costs and insufficient export demand may force some metals to be re-exported, complicating the supply chain further [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the restructuring of the physical supply chain will take several months, and the possibility of copper flowing out of the U.S. is being reassessed by traders [6]. - It may take months for the supply chain to return to balance, indicating a prolonged adjustment period for the copper market [6].