欧元区经济增长乏力 欧美贸易协议干扰复苏前景

Economic Growth and Trade Impact - Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 was 0.1%, the lowest quarterly growth since early 2024, primarily due to the impact of US tariffs [1][2] - Major economies like Germany and Italy experienced a 0.1% contraction in Q2, while Ireland's GDP fell by 1%, contrasting sharply with a 7.4% growth in Q1 [2] - Spain showed resilience with a 0.7% growth, benefiting from domestic consumption and lower reliance on the US market [2] Monetary Policy and Inflation Concerns - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates, marking the first pause since the rate cut cycle began in June last year [3] - ECB noted that while inflation has reached the 2% medium-term target, global trade uncertainties remain high, impacting future policy decisions [3] - ECB President Lagarde highlighted the potential for inflation to rise again if global supply chains fragment and protectionism increases [3][4] Trade Agreement Implications - The new EU-US trade agreement is expected to weaken the export competitiveness of European companies, potentially dragging down economic growth in the short term [4][5] - Economic experts estimate that the tariffs could result in a one-time impact on the EU economy of approximately 0.3% to 0.5% of GDP, with Germany facing the most significant effects [5] - The agreement may lead to a long-term risk of industrial migration from Europe to the US, adversely affecting local industries and employment [4][5]