国际观察丨欧元区经济增长乏力 欧美贸易协议干扰复苏前景

Economic Growth and Trade Agreement Impact - Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 was only 0.1%, the lowest quarterly growth since early 2024, primarily due to the impact of US tariffs [1][2] - Major economies like Germany and Italy experienced a contraction of 0.1% in Q2, while Ireland's GDP fell by 1%, contrasting sharply with a 7.4% growth in Q1 [2] - Spain showed resilience with a 0.7% growth, benefiting from lower dependence on the US market, while France's GDP grew by 0.3% due to inventory accumulation and consumer spending [2] Monetary Policy and Economic Uncertainty - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates, marking the first pause since the rate cut cycle began in June last year, amid global trade uncertainties [3][4] - ECB President Lagarde noted that while inflation has reached the 2% target, the global trade environment remains highly uncertain, which could impact future monetary policy decisions [3][4] Trade Agreement Risks - The new US-EU trade agreement is expected to weaken the export competitiveness of European companies, potentially dragging down economic growth in the short term and increasing the risk of industrial migration to the US in the long term [4][5] - Economic experts estimate that the tariffs imposed by the US could result in a one-time shock to the EU economy of approximately 0.3% to 0.5% of GDP, with Germany facing the most significant impact [5] - The new tariffs, which were previously at 1.2%, are projected to further diminish European export revenues and product competitiveness, leading to an estimated 0.5% decline in EU GDP [5]